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Morning Commentary: Friday 3rd September 2010
Major Developments:
AUD Trade Balance 1.89B (forecast 3.11B)
GBP Nationwide HPI m/m -0.9% (forecast -0.3%)
CHF Retail Sales y/y 4.8% (forecast 2.3%)
EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% (forecast 1.00%)
USD Unemployment Claims 472K (forecast 476k)
USD Pending Home Sales m/m 5.2$ (forecast -1.3%)
Upcoming Events today:
AUD AIG Services Index 1130
GBP Services PMI 2030
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 0030
USD Unemployment Rate 0030
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 0200
Market Overview: Market review:
  Overnight Ranges midrates
NZD/USD 0.7132 - 0.7178 0.7146
AUD/USD 0.9072 - 0.9121 0.9108
NZD/JPY 60.05 - 60.52 60.25
AUD/NZD 1.2680 - 1.2757 1.2746
GBP/NZD 2.1441 - 2.1573 2.1541
EUR/USD 1.2790 - 1.2846 1.2824
USD/JPY 84.03 - 84.46 84.32
GBP/USD 1.5353 - 1.5415 1.5392
USD/CHF 1.0099 - 1.0156 1.0129
USD/CAD 1.0476 - 1.0555 1.0535
EUR/JPY 107.66 - 108.31 108.12
EUR/GBP 0.8309 - 0.8346 0.8331
EUR/CHF 1.2949 - 1.3006 1.2989

NZD: The kiwi remained north bound overnight reaching a high of 0.7177 after pending US Home Sale’s came in at 5.2% (-1.3% expected) This lead investors to believe that the housing market may start to stabilize and boosted investor appetite for higher-yielding currencies such as the kiwi. NZD looks solid over the magical 0.70 figure. No local data due out today as the NZD currently around 0.7145.

AUD: The Aussie followed the trend of high yielding currencies overnight as another positive day for US equities ahead of tonight’s NFP data helped boost the currency to a high of 0.9119. Pending sales of existing houses unexpectedly climbed in July from a record low, indicating the real-estate market is steadying following the end of a government tax credit. The index of purchase contracts rose 5.2 % after a revised 2.8 % drop the prior month.

EUR: A choppy Euro during overnight trading swinging between a 70 point range. EUR currently sits 40 points above the opening price of 1.2790 area as the trend still remains to the upside. Resistance level still seen around 1.29 the figure. The ECB left rates unchanged at 1% and said it will extend its unlimited loan offerings into 2011. In addition, ECB raised growth forecasts for 2010 from 1.0% to 1.6%. Euro Retail Sales published tonight at 9pm NZT just prior to US Non-Farm Employment.

GBP: House Price Index was weaker than predicted coming in at -0.9% (-0.3% expected) at the open and put immediate pressure of the GBP trading down to a low of 1.5350. GBP remains in a tight range above 1.5320 for the moment as bias remains neutral. The DOW never offered much enthusiasm to the fray as GBP made a small reversal back towards the open of 1.5405 area late during London. Expect a quiet day as investors nervously await Non-Farm Payroll figures tonight.

 
Overnight Ranges:
  Level Change
Dow 10320.10 +50.63
Oil 74.93 +1.02
Gold 1250.90 +4.40
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