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Morning Commentary: Monday 6th September 2010
Major Developments:
Non-Farm Payrolls -54k (-101k expected)
USD Unemployment Rate 9.6% (on expectation)
GBP Services PMI 51.3 (forecast 53.0)
Upcoming Events today:
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 1330
Canadian Bank Holiday
United States Bank Holiday
Market Overview: Market review:
  Weekend Ranges midrates
NZD/USD 0.7153 - 0.7216 0.7194
AUD/USD 0.9090 - 0.9175 0.9160
NZD/JPY 60.27 - 61.47 60.66
AUD/NZD 1.2688 - 1.2734 1.2733
GBP/NZD 2.1390 - 2.1594 2.1464
EUR/USD 1.2820 - 1.2898 1.2888
USD/JPY 84.25 - 85.18 84.32
GBP/USD 1.5394 - 1.5468 1.5441
USD/CHF 1.0136 - 1.0237 1.0166
USD/CAD 1.0382 - 1.0568 1.0397
EUR/JPY 108.02 - 109.56 108.66
EUR/GBP 0.8299 - 0.8350 0.8346
EUR/CHF 1.3006 - 1.3162 1.3101

NZD: The much anticipated US non-farm payrolls number did not disappoint, beating expectations as payrolls fell by just 54k vs the 104k fall expected. There were also significant upward revisions to previous months. This saw equity futures jump over 1% and risk assets back in high demand. The kiwi spiked from 0.7170 to a 0.7218 high following the release, however 90mins later a weaker ISM non-manufacturing survey spoiled the party and NZD came off its highs to close at 0.72005. The kiwi has opened lower on the back of the earthquake in Christchurch and is currently sitting at 0.71911

AUD: The Australian dollar rose to the highest level in more than three weeks against its U.S. counterpart after a better-than-forecast US jobs report boosted investors’ appetite for higher-yielding assets. We have the RBA OCR announcement tomorrow at 430 NZT, RBA watchers will most likely see the OCR left at 4.5%. A Bloomberg survey recently released has showed all 25 economists surveyed are picking no change. The Aussie dollar has opened lower and is currently trading at 0.9155. Expect today to be relatively quiet with a Bank holiday in the US and Canada, however we do have the ANZ job advertisements index due for release at 1:30 this afternoon.

EUR: EUR: The Euro started the Friday session around 1.2814 and never looked weak. EUR was stronger on broad risk appetite following some solid economic data from US and China. Non-farm payroll showed a solid 67k expansion in the private job market even though the headline number showed -54k contraction. Both figures were better than expectation rallying Euro a solid 80 points to a high of 1.2895. We still see strong resistance at 1.29 the figure in the short term. No data out today for the EUR, also a USD holiday so trading expected to be light.

GBP: The Pound started Friday tentatively during early London session. Purchasing Managers Index came in at -51.3% slightly worse than expected sinking cable to its low of the day to 1.5390. With much anticipation around US Non-Farm Payrolls GBP traded in a tight range. US Non-Farm payrolls number did not disappoint, beating expectations as payrolls fell by just 54k against the 104k fall expected. GBP rallied hard to a fresh high of 1.5466 before pulling back a tad at the close. GBP has gapped lower this morning on the open at 1.5428 levels.

 
Overnight Ranges:
  Level Change
Dow 10447.93 +127.83
Oil 74.60 -0.70
Gold 1,249.20 -2.30
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